Any punter, he was a professional or just someone who loves to gamble just for fun should have built strategy. This strategy has been improved and adjusted according to his manner, his style of betting, according to market to bet (1X2, Over / Under, etc). To build such a strategy takes many attempts, time and especially patience and the right approach. Even if not too much knowledge of the matches, with a suitable bank and punter-right strategy and ensure its revenue - monthly salary for it.
Strategy, of which I am stopped and tested method is consistent with John Kelly. He is an American scientist, whose theory is also used in sports betting.Top - generally think Kelly formula whereby if we can determine the correct probability of an event happens, then you can determine the amount to bet. In the method of Kelly bets increases when you win and decreases when you lose because he is part of the Bank or otherwise reduces stake when we lose, because the bank decreases and increases when we win, because the bank is growing. To become - a clear theory can note the following formula:
A = P-(1-P) / (koef. - 1)Where:
A - Percent of the bank, you can bet on this eventP - probability of a specified event (to go fulltime)
Example:
Assume that we have a certain probability of 55% a match to go Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.00. In this case the formula would look like this:A = 0:55 to 12:45 / 1A = 0.1 => 10% of your bank.
Indeed, it appears that factor 2 is equal to 50% likely to happen, but we assume probability 55%. If we had a certain probability of 45%, say, the calculation of the formula of Kelly would be a negative number.It is very important to accurately determine the percentage likelihood of an event to come. If we are too optimistic and determine higher - percentage of probability, the bankruptcy of the bank will be a close finish.
Next step in my strategy is the search for Value bet.
What is Value bet and how is it?Possible simply Value bet is when the bookmaker has set a ratio for an event, but we believe this ratio is higher than it should be well worth the risk to bet on it.
To determine whether a bet is Value is needed:
1. To calculate the odds of an event to come
2. To find the best rate (I personally use www.bet365.com).
3. To multiply the percentage of victory that you have identified a factor given by bookmakers:
Value = (* percent probability factor) / 100
If after calculating the value obtained is 1 or greater, it means that we have Value bet. In the long run, giving thus brings success.
Important:
1. Playing must have patience and time in using a strategy. Not to breach, be disciplined and confident.
2. The bank is large enough. Little Bank reduces profits because we strive to earn very little, and this almost always leads to bankruptcy.
3. We must be disciplined. Do we not have perseverance and discipline, we will not have profits and
4. Never bet amounts can not afford to lose! Betting easily carried away and the player should not be submitted.
5. No team that just won, and one that just lost. It should not be discouraged if we entered into a series of heavy losses and we should not be overconfident if we win consecutive times.
6. Always need luck!
